If Christie runs, he will immediately be a top contender. Right now the prediction markets give him a 24.5 percent chance to run for President and an 8.0 percent chance to win the Republican nomination. However, should he proceed with a run, my projections suggest that the prediction markets would instantly grant him a 25 to 35 percent likelihood of gaining the nomination.
If Christie does not run, he may lose his moment. The markets are reflecting growing unease in the Republican party over the current crop of candidates. The reason that Romney did not gain all of Perry’s strength is that the Republicans are looking for someone to take him on for the nomination. If Christie does not grab this chance, someone else will–former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, for instance, or some other dark horse contender. If Perry continues to falter–and if Christie passes on a 2012 presidential run–the predictions markets suggest that GOP field is still fairly wide open.