Ted Cruz has agreed to not campaign in Oregon and New Mexico, if John Kasich does not campaign in Indiana. This is the type of event that markets were made for. It is impossible to model the impact of this incredibly idiosyncratic event. But, markets can look at the alliance and figure out its meaning.
1) This helped Cruz a little in Indiana. This is a winner-take-most state and Kasich was still taking up some valuable support. 24 hours ago Trump was 68% to win the state, after the news broke he dropped down to 51%, but has since bounced back up to 61%. It may not be enough, but it is a potential pothole in Trump’s road to 1,237 delegates. The markets are counting on Cruz getting slaughtered tomorrow and not sure how strong this alliance really is when Kasich told his supporters to still vote for him.
2) In Oregon and New Mexico it may help Trump. Cruz has been doing well enough in these states and Kasich was not going to win them. But, these are proportionally allocated delegates, so not much downside for Cruz in letting Kasich fight it out here. In Oregon, Trump is now 70% to win and was 50% 24 hours ago. Cruz went from 48% to 14%, while Kasich went from 2% to 18%.
As always, Nate Cohn over at the New York Times as the scoop on the potential meaning on the delegate count.