The Democrats have a decent chance at having a great night in the governor’s races. There are 10 elections that I am following closely:
2 Tough, but possible pickups for the Democrats:
Wisconsin: this is a potentially a huge pick-up for the Democrats against a likely 2016 contender for the Republicans. Scott Walker is a conservative Republican leader in a solid blue state.
Maine: Paul LePage is a second unapologetic conservative Republican in a solid blue state. He is also in a tight spot.
3 Likely pickups for the Democrats:
Florida: neither the Democratic former governor Crist nor the current Republican governor Scott are pulling ahead in this nail-biter.
Alaska: independent Bill Walker (running with a Democratic lieutenant governor) is looking very strong against the Republican incumbent.
Kansas: Paul Davis is pulling ahead of conservative Republican Sam Brownback in this incredibly red state.
3 Likely holds for the Democrats:
Colorado, Illinois, and Connecticut: all three of these have looked tight, but are likely to remain blue governors in blue states.
1 Likely hold for the Republicans:
Michigan: this is a generally blue state, but there is a Republican incumbent heading towards a likely hold.
1 Likely loss for the Democrats:
Massachusetts: the only likely bad mark on the election for the Democrats is Martha Coakley. She is poised to lose against a moderate Republican Charlie Baker. Although, as a moderate Republican in a state with a long tradition of moderate Republican governors*, this is not a major ideological shift. *Note: I am referring to Governor Romney, a moderate, who should not be confused with Republican nominee for present Romney, who is not a moderate!)