As though New Hampshire wasn’t already overprivileged enough in the broken primary system, the state may be the one to tip the scales in the general election to either party. According to my new elections model, which orders the states from most to least likely to go to the Republican candidate, a GOP win in New Hampshire gives the challenger 270 votes to Obama’s 268. If the president wins, he carries the election with 272 votes to his opponent’s 266.
Our model, which I developed with Yahoo Research economist Patrick Hummel by analyzing data from the past 10 elections, gives Obama a 59.4 percent likelihood of winning in the Granite State. This number is slightly higher than our prediction in our first post about our equations last week because the Real Clear Politics average of presidential approval polls has increased from 48 to 49 percent. The most likely outcome is still that Obama will win by 303 votes, carrying Ohio and Virginia as well as New Hampshire. As we noted before, however, elections are just as subject to chance as football games, and if the contest were held 100 times, we’d expect the Republican to win about forty times.