1:30 AM ET: This is what under-performance versus the polls looks like:
10:33 PM ET:
10:13 PM ET: We have the senate at 95% for the Republicans, but that almost feels generous to the Democrats.
8:07 PM ET: The Democrats continue to over-perform the trandtional polling in the exit polling (with the exception of VA, which is tight). And, they are all but certain to capture both of the key must wins states of NH and NC. Georgia is tighter than expected as well. This is going to to be long night, but definitly better for the Dems than expected.
7:34 PM ET: We just upgraded NC to 95% in light of the strong exit polls for the incumbent Hagan. VA is too tight to call right now, which is bad new for the Democrats. But, both GA elections are too close to call as well, which is bad news for the Republicans. Overall, the Democrats are slightly over-performing on the exit polls relative to the traditional polling. But, it is too early to say if the results are going to be biased in either direction this election cycle. Grab a snack, becuase the roller coaster at 8 PM ET!
6:36 PM ET: Kentucky has closed a part of the state and the early returns have GOP incumbent McConnell well ahead of 2008 in almost every location. He went into tonight at 100% and will win
3:20 PM ET:
1:30 PM ET:
1:15 PM ET: The table below will update all night tonight and all commentary by me will be in this spot. So, please check back for live updates starting just before 7 PM ET.
Link to House page …
Note: Prob is "probability of victory" and EV is "expected vote share"