PredictWise started its state-by-state forecast in late February 2016, but prediction markets did not become fully liquid until late May. Prior to late May the forecasts were largely defined by our fundamental predictions of a generic Democratic nominee versus a generic Republican nominee. And, they were largely stable. You can see where the fundamental predictions were by the straight lines on the left side of the chart. What started out as jumble of predictions, all over the place, has now solidified into four main groups: solid Democratic, solid Republican, strong Democratic, and toss-up.
There are 16 states (and DC), totaling 201 Electoral Votes that are 92% or higher for Clinton. There are 23 states, totally 191 Electoral Votes that are 89% or higher for Trump. That leaves 11 states: five toss-ups and six strong Democratic.
The five toss-ups are: North Carolina 50%, Iowa 53%, Ohio 54%, Florida 60%, Nevada 63%. Note they are all leaning slightly for Clinton as of this second, but have fluctuated between 45% and 65% for Clinton over the last few days. These states total 74 Electoral Votes. If Trump captured all of these, he would still be down 4 Electoral Votes.
The six strong Democratic: Michigan 87%, Virginia 87%, Colorado 85%, New Hampshire 84%, Wisconsin 84%, and Pennsylvania 84%. Trump needs to sweep all of the toss-ups and get one of these states. But, if he misses any of the toss-ups, he will likely need Pennsylvania to make up the difference.
After all of the loose talk from pundits about this election redefining the Electoral Map, it sure looks pretty similar last election …