The biggest update of the senatorial elections over the last few days is the good news for Republicans in both Colorado and Iowa. Both of these have moved to leaning Democratic to toss-ups. Again, nothing extremely newsworthy in either of the races, but a gradual movement in the polls.

Imagine for a second that there were 99 senate seats (eliminating Kansas’ seat that is up this year) then the Republicans are 52% likely to get 51 seats (and have the majority) and the Democrats are 28% to get 50 seats (and have the majority). Thus, the Republicans are 62% to win the senate outright and the Democrats are 28% to win the senate outright. The Kansas race is basically 50% and relatively uncorrelated with other races, at this point. If Orman chooses to caucuses with the Democrats if/only if he is pivotal to Democratic control, then he will caucus with the Democrats about 50% of the time, but 100% of the time it matters. So, the Democrats have about 38% likelihood of retaining in that scenario. If he goes Republican at 49 Democrats and 51 Republicans than he will go Republican at 100% of the time it matter. So, the Democrats would have 28% likelihood of retaining the senate. More to follow on this soon …

Here is New York Times and FiveThirtyEight compared with PredictWise. Not too much difference:

Updating Predictions: senatorial, senatorial balance of power, and gubernatorial.