The last week and a half has been an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats in the polls and their fleeting chances of holding onto the majority of the senate.

The Democrats only bright spot has been Georgia, where Michelle Nunn has pushed into a tight race with David Perdue. The most likely outcome of the election is a runoff between the two candidates, as it is likely neither will get 50% of the vote. Which is why, despite leading many polls, Nunn is still slightly less than 50% to win, as Libertarian supporters are little more likely to break for Perdue in a runoff.

The biggest movement is in Kansas, where voters appear to be second guessing their choice of a Democratic leaning independent. The next biggest movement is more surprising, as the incumbent Democratic senator Udall in CO has fallen steadily behind the Republican challenger Gardner. Finally, the Iowa senate race has been a bit more of a regular roller coaster as Ernst, the Republican, holds a slight, but steady, lead over Braley.

South Dakota has been added to the short list, but Rounds, the Republican, still hold a strong lead in the three candidate race. Polling is sparse in South Dakota though and we are still waiting to see what will happen next!

Here is New York Times and FiveThirtyEight compared with PredictWise. Not too much difference:

Updating Predictions: senatorial, senatorial balance of power, and gubernatorial.