The Democrats have had a few good days in the polls, but it is unlikely to be enough to hold onto the senate. Currently the Democrats are about 25% to hold the senate, up from a low of 20% yesterday.
Despite a crazy outlier poll today, Shaheen looks more and more likely to old in New Hampshire against former Massachusetts’ senator Brown. And, Hagan is holding the lead in North Carolina for another week against challenger Tillis. But, the reason it has been a good week for the Democrats is that there were so few races left in their column after last week!
Both Georgia and Kansas have stayed really tight. Georgia is increasingly likely to go to runoff where, despite the current polling, the Democratic candidate, Nunn, will be in trouble. As turnout decreases the Democratic candidates lose voters.
Iowa is back in play, as the next most likely to flip. This is not surprising as the Republican Ernst is a wildcard. She was my pre-season pick for an embarrassing and costly gaff. Alaska has had some crazy polls recently, but any poll with Don Young only up by 1 point is pretty suspect (despite his recent erratic behavior). The Democratic incumbent Begich is still in a lot of trouble holding his seat.
Here is New York Times and FiveThirtyEight compared with PredictWise.
The crazy thing is that as these states go up and down there is not that much movement in the likely outcome. There has been a steady 22% or so with 48 seats for the Democrats as the most likely outcome. But, the likelihood of the Democrats controlling the senate has fallen as 49 or 50 seats have fallen and 47 seats has risen.