Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
Honestly, pretty slow day today. A bunch of polls confirmed what I assumed that there would be time for a little bit of reversion to the long-run mean in both the national and state-by-state polling.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton 93 percent for 274 electoral votes. Pennsylvania, of course, at 93 percent is the loosest, along with Nevada at 93 percent and Colorado at 94 percent. Michigan at 95 percent is the final state where Trump has any realistic chance. New Hampshire could give Clinton an extra 4 votes at 89 percent; it purely insurance at this point.
2) Lean Clinton: Trump needs all of these states and one more; all of these states are insurance for Clinton. North Carolina is 63 percent after mixed polling and early, and Florida at 78 percent after surging early vote and small, but consistent polling leads.
3) Lean Trump: Ohio 32 percent and Arizona 22 percent lean Trump. He would need to sweep these as well! Early voting has been good for Trump in Ohio, but is starting to look more average and polls have moved back towards Clinton, with Trump holding a slight lead.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and OK RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. The average of the 2 (+5.2) and 4 (+4.6)-way Pollster is +4.9 for Clinton. The average of the 2 (+2.9) and 4 (+3.2)-way RCP is +3.1 for Clinton. But, if you drop LAT/USC it is +3.4.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin (well pretty certain) and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 74 percent. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats good in Pennsylvania 79 percent. If all of this goes Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 49 seats.
2) Lean Republican: The Democrats will need one of these state in addition to the presidency. New Hampshire 53 percent, Indiana 30 percent, Missouri is 32 percent, and North Carolina 32 percent. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.
Most likely option is they win one and end up 50/50 in the senate!