Clinton is 90 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 10 percent. Democrats are now 75 percent to take the Senate and 13 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
Clinton had a strong day of polling in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Again, the campaign has otherwise been very quiet. I had an epic Facebook Live today for those who missed it. The topline number remains steady because the polls have basically contracted a little over the last few days. But, Trump is really running out of time if they do not contract faster.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 94 percent or more to win the states that add up to 271 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). That line is Pennsylvania. For the first time in a while, every state if now 5.0 percent or higher in this group. It would be highly unlikely that any state is won by a candidate down over 5 percent.
2) “Toss-Up”: There are six states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Nevada 85%, North Carolina 81%, Florida 72%, Ohio 49%, Iowa 48%, Arizona 45% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win). Maine-2 and Nebraska-2 are both worth one electoral vote and both toss-ups.
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in one further state: Georgia 22% (if she wins Georgia, it is a landslide).
FiveThirtyEight continues to baffle me with their forecast losing steam today for Clinton. Their forecasts are now range between 82.1 and 80.0 for Clinton. Here is a quick write-up of how FiveThirtyEight trails PredictWise.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. There really is not a major weak link anymore. And, Florida is really starting to look like a solid Clinton state. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 5.7 percent in RCP and and 7.3 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, which down to 62%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking good in Indiana 68%, New Hampshire 57%, and Pennsylvania 63%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 51 seats. The most likely, as of right now, they win 2 of 3 and we are 50-50 in the senate!
2) “Toss-Up”: Missouri is 45% and North Carolina 39%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats. The same polls that showed the tight presidential race also swung well for the Republican incumbent in the senate race.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is at 14% for the Democratic challenger.