Clinton is 90 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 10 percent. Democrats are now 76 percent to take the Senate and 13 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
A lot of polling came out today showing a consistent national lead of Clinton. Bloomberg had a good poll for Trump in Florida (some thoughts) and Clinton had some strong polling in New Hampshire. Both campaigns have been incredibly quiet. At this point we are getting extremely close to Election Day, with dwindling possibility of any major events shaking up the storyline. That means that for Trump to win, he is going to have to benefit from large, correlated error between polling and outcome. (1) We have never seen a state off by more than 5 pp from its average. (2) Correlated error maxes out about 2 pp, but likely close to 1 pp. That means that all states could be off to one direction on average, but not likely more than 2 pp. (3) Not great evidence of “shy Trump” voters leading to him beating polls, but plenty of evidence of Get-Out-The-Vote advantages for Clinton making it more likely she over-performs. (4) Unique mixture of polling methods in 2016, lower probability of correlated error.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 93 percent or more to win the states that add up to 271 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). That line is Pennsylvania.
2) “Toss-Up”: There are six states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Nevada 85%, Florida 76, North Carolina 77%, Ohio 49%, Iowa 45%, Arizona 45% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win). Maine-2 and Nebraska-2 are both worth one electoral vote and both toss-ups.
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in one further state: Georgia 17% (if she wins Georgia, it is a landslide).
Useful to note here that Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has all states of Pennsylvania and up at 7.1% or more! Somehow he translates that into 85.9% for the NowCast. I would say the NowCast with my numbers is about 95%, but with Nate Silver’s numbers it should be >99%.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. There really is not a major weak link anymore. And, Florida is really starting to look like a solid Clinton state. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 5.4 percent in RCP and and 7.5 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, which down to 64%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking good in Indiana 68%, New Hampshire 60%, and Pennsylvania 61%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 51 seats.
2) “Toss-Up”: Missouri is 50% and North Carolina 41%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats. The same polls that showed the tight presidential race also swung well for the Republican incumbent in the senate race.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is at 14% for the Democratic challenger.