Clinton is 91 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 9 percent. Democrats are now 77 percent to take the Senate and 18 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
A ton of polling today, but not much movement. Nevada, Florid, and North Carolina looking increasingly strong for Clinton with Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona looking increasingly lean Trump.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 93 percent or more to win the states that add up to over 270 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win).
2) “Toss-Up”: There are six states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Nevada 88%, Florida 81, North Carolina 75%, Ohio 53%, Iowa 48%, Arizona 47% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win).
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in one further state: Georgia 18% (if she wins Georgia, it is a landslide).
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. There really is not a major weak link anymore. And, Florida is really starting to look like a solid Clinton state. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 5.1 percent in RCP and and 7.6 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, which is up to 72%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking good in Indiana 71%, New Hampshire 61%, and Pennsylvania 65%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 51 seats.
2) “Toss-Up”: Missouri is 49% and North Carolina 44%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats. The same polls that showed the tight presidential race also swung well for the Republican incumbent in the senate race.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is at 23% for the Democratic challenger.