Clinton is 91 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 9 percent. Democrats are now 78 percent to take the Senate and 17 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
Two polls came out today, one with Clinton +12 and the other with Trump +1; focus on Trump 43 and Trump 41, because that is the big story. Trump is very tightly getting between 39.4 and 43.6 percent support, while Clinton is between 45.1 and 51.7 percent. In short, the differences in these polls are how hard the undecided and third party voters are pushed to make a choice. And, when they do, they move sharply to Clinton. This reinforces the idea that Trump has a hard ceiling that is way too low for him to win.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 93 percent or more to win the states that add up to over 270 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). The loosest of these states are Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Wisconsin appears little bit more secure.
2) “Toss-Up”: There are six states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Florida 83%, Nevada 81%, North Carolina 75%, Ohio 61%, Iowa 56%, Arizona 54% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win).
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in one further state: Georgia 22% (if she wins Georgia, it is a landslide).
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. There really is not a major weak link anymore. And, Florida is really starting to look like a solid Clinton state. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 5.9percent in RCP and and 7.3 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, which is up to 72%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking good in Indiana 72%, New Hampshire 65%, and Pennsylvania 62%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 51 seats.
2) “Toss-Up”: Missouri is 49% and North Carolina 46%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is at 21% for the Democratic challenger.