Clinton is 91 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 9 percent. Democrats are now 74 percent to take the Senate and 18 percent to take the House. I would love to tell you all about today, but since Twitter was out I have no idea what happened?!? Seriously, Trump got booed last night at the Al Smith dinner, which I understand to be an unusual event. And, we are still waiting for the polling to come in to verify the market expectation that Trump’s performance at the final debate was not going to win him back any support, making it likely that Clinton will enter Election Day with an historically large lead in the polling and GOTV advantage. If polling stays flat, Clinton will enter Election Day at about 95-96% with the only chance for Trump catastrophic polling failure due to “Shy Trump voters”. And, there is evidence that they do not exist.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 93 percent or more to win the states that add up to over 270 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). The loosest of these states are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado (pretty much the same states since June!).
2) “Toss-Up”: There are five states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Florida 84%, Nevada 84%, North Carolina 79%, Ohio 67%, and Iowa 54% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win).
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in two states that are generally safe Republican: Arizona 54% and Georgia 22% (if she wins any of these states, she will win big). Should I just move Arizona into the toss-up category?
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. There really is not a major weak link anymore. And, Florida is really starting to look like a solid Clinton state. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 6.2 percent in RCP and and 7.3 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada at 66%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking good in Indiana 71%, New Hampshire 66%, and Pennsylvania 61%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 51 seats.
2) “Toss-Up”: Missouri is 49% and North Carolina 46%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is at 23% for the Democratic challenger.
For your amusement, here is my senate forecast next to FiveThirtyEight’s extremely volatile “forecast”.
Note: This update goes out between 9:00 PM and 11:59 ET each night through election eve …