Clinton is 91 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 9 percent. Democrats are now 74 percent to take the Senate and 18 percent to take the House. Today people basically just continues to marvel at last night’s debate, focusing mainly whether or not Trump would accept the results if he wins OR loses.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 93 percent or more to win the states that add up to over 270 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). The loosest of these states are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado (pretty much the same states since June!).
2) “Toss-Up”: There are five states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Florida 85%, Nevada 83%, North Carolina 79%, Ohio 68%, and Iowa 52% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win).
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in two states that are generally safe Republican: Arizona 47% and Georgia 21% (if she wins any of these states, she will win big).
All of these prediction numbers reflect the impact of last night’s debate, which was a minor upward shift for Clinton. Of course, the polling numbers will not move for at least a few days.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. There really is not a major weak link anymore. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 6.4 percent in RCP and and 7.1 percent in Pollster.
Note: This update goes out between 9:00 PM and 11:59 ET each night through election eve …