Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 68 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
Comey Letter II hit this afternoon clearing Hillary Clinton of any wrongdoing that Comey Letter I implied. Four key points here. (1) There are are not many persuadable voters for the first or second letter to shift support. (2) The impact was all about messages to supporters to get them out to vote. The first letter through Clinton off message and Trump on message. This second letter will free Clinton up to be more positive and upbeat and push Trump back to talking about rigged elections. Some pundits are worried that anything with the words FBI and Clinton are bad, but I think Comey/FBI proved themselves so partisan and incompetent, that it will be good news to weary or loose Clinton supporters that she is free from this mess. (3) The entire email scandal is a farce. (4) Comey violated the Hatch Act by using his position to influence the US election. This second letter is not going to absolve him. Further, the FBI has a lot of people who talked to both the Trump campaign and press, spreading terrible rumors about Clinton over the last 10 days. The FBI is not just walking away from this.
The impact of the second letter was swift in the market. Clinton moved from 87% to 89% over the last few hours. And, you can see why in the state-by-state data. Of course, the biggest movement are the ones near the center, which are close enough that a little boost may make it happen for Clinton. But, the biggest impact is near the top as CO moves from 92-94%, PA moves from 91-93%, and NH moves from 75-82%.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton 94 percent for 274 electoral votes>. Pennsylvania, of course, at 94 percent is the loosest, along with Nevada and Colorado. Michigan at 95 percent is the final state where Trump has any realistic chance. New Hampshire could give Clinton an extra 4 votes at 81 percent.
2) Lean Clinton: Trump needs all of these states and one more. North Carolina is 71% and Florida at 77% are both leaning hard after strong early voting.
3) Lean Trump: Ohio 38% and Arizona 26% lean Trump. He would need to sweep these as well! Early voting has been good for Trump in Ohio, but is starting to look more average and polls have moved back towards Clinton, with Trump holding a slight lead.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and OK RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. She is down to 1.8 percent in RCP and and holding at 5.1 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin (well pretty certain) and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 80%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats good in Pennsylvania 69%. If all of this goes Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 49 seats.
2) Lean Republican: The Democrats will need one of these state in addition to the presidency. New Hampshire 51%, Indiana 38%, Missouri is 39%, and North Carolina 34%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.