Note: originally wrote Clinton needs 269, where I meant 270! If she gets 269 it will go to the House where Trump will win.
Clinton is 90 percent likely to win the election over Donald Trump.
1) Strong Clinton: She is 94 percent or more to win the states that add up to over 270 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). The loosest of these states are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado (pretty much the same states since June!).
2) “Toss-Up”: There are five states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Florida 85%, Nevada 84%, North Carolina 81%, Ohio 67%, and Iowa 54% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win).
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in two states that are generally safe Republican: Arizona 46% and Georgia 23% (if she wins any of these states, she will win big). Clinton is spending $2 million on advertisements in Arizona.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. The weakest links is New Hampshire, which is 4.6 percent in Pollster and 3.6 in RCP. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 6.9 percent in RCP (8.0 if I drop the obviously wrong LAT/USC poll at -2.0) and and 8.2 percent in Pollster. Those leads are huuge. And, as they are updated daily, they can be leading indicators for states that have not been polled recently.
The election was dominated today by talk of voter fraud; voter fraud happens at rates that approach zero (maybe 0.0001 percent of votes). Trump is accusing the Democrats of having: dead people and illegal immigrants vote. Both of these are vanishing rare. Neither side is pushing double voting (also vanishing rare), but some Republicans are invoking ballot stuffing (i.e., stuffing the ballot box after people vote). This is extremely hard imagine happening in 2016 for two reasons. First, we have local election control, meaning it would need to be coordinated campaign. Second, Republicans control most swing states. If anything is a concern it is the electronic voting machines which do not keep a paper trail. You may recall the CEO of Diebold, the vote counting machine company, promising to deliver Ohio to Bush. But, so far, we have not seen any evidence of wrong doing happening.
If voter fraud is rare, voter suppression is a big deal; Somewhere between 1,000 and 10,000 times as many eligible voters are infringed on their right to vote as votes are cast illegally. Voter purging is pushed as way to eliminate voter fraud (which does not happen), but forces many people to re-register or cast provisional ballots, because they not know they are no longer registered when they go to vote. Ultimately, many voters who are purged, just do not go through the trouble. Voter ID laws serve no obvious benefit (as they do not really address voter fraud), but make it harder for poor people and immigrants (citizens) to vote, as they are less likely to have the money or identification necessary in some states.
Many voters believe voter fraud is an issue, because the Republican Party has pushed it as an issue for 16 years as a way to justify voter suppression.
Tomorrow is the final debate. I will be Tweeting and blogging live starting at 8:30 PM ET onward …
Note: This update goes out between 9:00 PM and 11:59 ET each night through election eve …