Note: I am going to daily updates sometime between 9:00 and 11:59 PM ET each night through election eve … I originally wrote Clinton needs 269, where I meant 270! If she gets 269 it will go to the House where Trump will win.
Clinton is 91 percent likely to win the election over Donald Trump. She is 92 percent or more to win the states that add up to over 270 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). There are five states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Florida 84%, Nevada 82%, North Carolina 78%, Ohio 68%, and Iowa 56% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win). She has a serious shot in two states that are generally safe Republican: Arizona 44% and Georgia 19% (if she wins any of these states, she will win big).
Highlighted in yellow are all of the Huffington Post’s Pollster and RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregated polling averages that are in strong Clinton states, but under 5 percent. In the last four election no candidate has won a state if he was down by more than 5 percent in the aggregated polling average. Right now, Clinton’s most vulnerable state is New Hampshire at 4.7 and 3.6 percent. That is why it is the lowest of the must win states for Clinton, at 92 percent. Maine and Minnesota are pretty darn secure for Clinton despite RCP having both below 4 percent and recent polling for Colorado has been very strong for Clinton.
CNN came out with three swing state polls today in North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio; Trump was happy about being up in OH and slightly down in NV and NC, but he should be concerned. First, he needs to win all three of these states, so still down in polling from October 10-15 is not good. Remember, that most of these interviews were conducted after the Access Hollywood tape, but prior to the accusations of sexual assault that followed. Second, these polls had suspiciously large likely voter screens (i.e., the difference between registered and likely voters swung the polls a lot). Third, and most important by far, the national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 7 percent in RCP and and 8 percent in Pollster. Those leads are huuge.