Clinton is 86 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 14 percent. Democrats are now 69 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton 95% for 239 electoral votes, with Michigan as the loosest at 95%. Nevada, 6 EV, and Colorado, 9 EV, are both 92% on the strength of early voting. And, Pennsylvania, 20 EV, is 91%. Once again, Pennsylvania is the clear swing state!
2) Lean Clinton: Trump needs all of these states and one more. North Carolina is 68% and Florida at 75% are both leaning hard after strong early voting.
3) Lean Trump: Ohio 30% and Arizona 20% lean Trump. He would need to sweep these as well! Early voting has been good for Trump in Ohio, but is starting to look more average.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and OK RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. She is down to 1.7 percent in RCP and and holding at 5.2 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin (well pretty certain) and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 78%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats great in Pennsylvania 80%. If all of this goes Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 49 seats.
2) Lean Republican: The Democrats will need one of these state in addition to the presidency. New Hampshire 48%, Indiana 41%, Missouri is 38%, and North Carolina 36%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.