Clinton is 83 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 17 percent. Democrats are now 70 percent to take the Senate and 7 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton >= 90 for 259 Electoral Votes with Pennsylvania at 90% and everything else 97% and higher. Should she carry Pennsylvania (+5.9 Pollster and +3.0% RCP) she just needs to takes Colorado (where early vote looks good and polls are tight) and either Nevada (polls not great, but early vote awesome) or New Hampshire (polls tight, but obviously suffering from partisan non-response).
2) Lean Clinton: Trump needs all of these states and one more. North Carolina is 65% and Florida at 65%. Polling and early voting looking good in North Carolina and polling looking good in Florida with decent early voting.
3) Lean Trump: Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona all lean Trump. He would need to sweep these as well! Early voting has been good for Trump in Ohio, but is starting to look more average.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and OK RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. She is down to 1.3 percent in RCP and and holding at 6.1 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin (well pretty certain) and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 66%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats great in Pennsylvania 79%. If all of this goes Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 49 seats.
2) “Toss-Up”: Indiana 51%, New Hampshire 51%, Missouri is 36%, and North Carolina 43%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is down to 12% for the Democratic challenger.