Clinton is 85 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 15 percent. Democrats are now 69 percent to take the Senate and 9 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
Polling was certainly interesting today, but since I frantically finishing this during the rain delay in top of 10th inning in the 7th game of the World Series, you are getting a limited update. Seriously, Clinton is looking good in Wisconsin and steady in Pennsylvania. North Carolina and Florida are both now leaning towards Clinton. Colorado has a small lead for Clinton, but early voting looking good. Trump is getting great polling in Nevada, but it is notoriously hard to poll and Clinton doing well in early voting. In short, Clinton’s firewall is holding up with 263 votes + Colorado’s 9 votes looking pretty good. And, she has Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida as possible security.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is >= 90% for 272 Electoral Votes and 80% for 278. We are talking about the same four states since the start of the summer: Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin has graduated to very strong Clinton. I add Nevada into here for now, at 80%, which has tight polls, but very strong early voting.
2) Lean Clinton: Trump needs all of these states and one more. North Carolina is 61% and Florida at 54%.
3) Lean Trump: Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona all lean Trump. He would need to sweep these as well! Early voting has been good for Trump in Ohio.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and OK RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. She is down to 1.7 percent in RCP and and holding at 5.8 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 54%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats great in Pennsylvania 78% and good in New Hampshire 60%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 50 seats. Seriously, that is the most likely scenario.
2) “Toss-Up”: Indiana 52%, Missouri is 44%, and North Carolina 35%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is down to 13% for the Democratic challenger.