Clinton is 84 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 16 percent. Democrats are now 70 percent to take the Senate and 9 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
Polling was certainly interesting today. Trump had a very wild +7 poll in North Carolina while Clinton had an equally wild +8 poll in Florida. My Twitter stream breaks them down in more detail, but the advice is the same. Treat them as an outlier and average with the rest!
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is >= 90% for 272 Electoral Votes and 80% for 278. We are talking about the same four states since the start of the summer: Colorado (where polling is tightish, but early voting is good), New Hampshire, Wisconsin (which is waiting on a big poll tomorrow, but looking good for Clinton), and Pennsylvania (which is almost certain for Clinton). I add Nevada into here for now, which has tight polls, but very strong early voting.
2) Lean Clinton: Trump needs all of these states and one more. North Carolina is 64% after a really bad poll, but decent early voting. And Florida is 60% after a really good poll, and decent early voting.
3) Lean Trump: Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona all lean Trump. He would need to sweep these as well! Early voting has been good for Trump in Ohio.
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and OK RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. She is down to 2.2 percent in RCP (3.4 without LAT/USC) and and holding at 6.1 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 61%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking OK in Indiana 57% (which is hard to poll and just plummeted after a single poll) and good in Pennsylvania 73%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 50 seats. Seriously, that is the most likely scenario.
2) “Toss-Up”: New Hampshire 54%, Missouri is 38%, and North Carolina 37%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is down to 11% for the Democratic challenger.