Clinton is 86 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 14 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 9 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
The Comey/FBI scandal continues to fester. It is possible, but unlikely that another update will actually indicate that Clinton did something wrong. That would probably take more than eight days to prove. More likely, if there is an update, will be if they find the emails are duplicates, which would take a few minutes or hours, max. There are developing concerns over what the FBI is not saying about Trump’s Russian ties. Further, Trump’s 1990’s tax avoidance scheme is borderline legal.
Polling was mixed today with state poll strong enough for Clinton where it counts and national polls somewhat tighter. Trump is consolidating the Republican vote. This is not a surprise as it has been happening slowly since the third debate.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 91 percent or more to win the states that add up to 268 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). I am not really sure why New Hampshire has fallen to 88 percent as polling remains strong there for Clinton. Pennsylvania is at 91 percent and Wisconsin/Colorado both at 93 percent. I expect Colorado to stabilize in the next few days as the early voting is looking good for Clinton with more Democrats than Republicans in a state that is split evenly on party identification. These have been our loose four states all summer into fall and they remain the only loose states now. Michigan, New Mexico, Maine, Virginia, and Minnesota all look very stable with polling leads of 6+ percent.
2) “Toss-Up”: There are six states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Nevada 80%, North Carolina 75%, Florida 59%, Ohio 38%, Iowa 3-%, Arizona 30% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win). Maine-2 and Nebraska-2 are both worth one electoral vote and both toss-ups. This has been the real impact point, in that these states are small enough leads that a possible 1-2 point shift could help Trump. Early voting looks very strong in Nevada and pretty strong in North Carolina. These two states may break away from the pack in the next few days as they hold steady or rise with early voting and the other state stay squarely in the toss-up category.
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in one further state: Georgia 14% (if she wins Georgia, it is a landslide).
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 3.1 percent in RCP (4.3 w/o USC/LAT) and and 6.4 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 61%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking OK in Indiana 57% (which is hard to poll and just plummeted after a single poll) and good in Pennsylvania 64%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 50 seats. Seriously, that is the most likely scenario.
2) “Toss-Up”: New Hampshire 48%, Missouri is 36%, and North Carolina 41% (side-note, Burr, the Republican made a really bad joke today about people shooting Clinton). If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is down to 11% for the Democratic challenger.