Clinton is 87 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 13 percent. Democrats are now 69 percent to take the Senate and 9 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:
Things have only gotten worse for Comey/FBI since last night’s blog post. We now have confirmation that he had never seen any of the emails and that he wrote the letter because he was worried about anti-Clinton agents leaking it if he did not. Apparently, interfering with the election was his response to agents possibly interfering with the election. I think it is safe to say that this incident will do a lot more to the FBI than the election, in that the impact is swamped by the natural “coming home” of Republican voters to Trump.
1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 92 percent or more to win the states that add up to 272 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). This has held relatively stable between 92-94 percent as the low point. The two loosest have basically been the same the entire cycle: Pennsylvania 93% and New Hampshire 92%.
2) “Toss-Up”: There are six states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Nevada 78%, North Carolina 75%, Florida 60%, Ohio 37%, Iowa 33%, Arizona 35% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win). Maine-2 and Nebraska-2 are both worth one electoral vote and both toss-ups. This has been the real impact point, in that these states are small enough leads that a possible 1-2 point shift could help Trump.
3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in one further state: Georgia 15% (if she wins Georgia, it is a landslide).
Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 4.3 percent in RCP (5.3 w/o USC/LAT) and and 7.0 percent in Pollster.
In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 61%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.
1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking good in Indiana 69%, New Hampshire 53%, and Pennsylvania 64%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 51 seats. The most likely, as of right now, they win 2 of 3 and we are 50-50 in the senate!
2) “Toss-Up”: Missouri is 38% and North Carolina 37%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats. The same polls that showed the tight presidential race also swung well for the Republican incumbent in the senate race.
3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is at 14% for the Democratic challenger.