There has been an impressive amount of movement over the last week as the world (or is it Europe?) watched 20 of the 26 finalists compete their way through the semi-finals.
1) Three competitors shined in the semi-finals: Sweden moved from 21% to 25% likely to win the contest. Sanna Nielsen's Undo has 1.2 million YouTube views, nearly 400,000 coming since the first semi-finals. Austria and Netherlands are the more exciting story. Austria has shot from 2% to 21% after Conchita Wurst's Rise Like A Phoenix performance in the second semi-finals. It is worth a view for those of you who are not going to watch tonight … it already has 4.8 million YouTube views. Similarly, the Netherlands moved from 1% to 18% after The Common Linnets' Calm After The Storm first semi-final performance.
2) Armenia holds on as the fourth most likely winner at 10%. After coming into the contest as the heavy favorite, Aram MP3 – Not Alone did not stun in the first semi-final, but 3.8 million YouTube views, with 1 million in the last few days since the semi-finals, shows they are still generating a lot of interest.
3) Rounding out the top five is Great Britain. As an automatic qualifier, the crowd did not get to see Molly Smitten-Downes' Children of the Universe. Thus, it is not surprising that it held on at 8% likelihood of victory.
4) Five competitors cluster between 6 and 10 on my list: Ukraine (4%), Hungary (4%), Denmark (3%), Greece (1%), and Spain (1%).
5) The remaining 16 are extremely unlikely to win.