5:21 ET: All good for our first set of predictions! All 5 “locks” made it to the finals, along with 2 of 3 “likely” and 1 of 2 “bubbles (in)”. The two surprises came from 1 of 2 “not likely” and 1 of 3 “very longshots” … the 1 bubbles (out) did not make it.

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I will have much more to say about this later in the week, but here is my first salvo on Euorovision 2014.

1) Likely winner: I have two clear favorites going into the contest. First, is Armenia at 31.7%. Their video, Not Alone, has been viewed 2,808,965 times on YouTube. Second, is Sweden at 21.1%. Their video, Undo, has been viewed just 820,508 time on YouTube. Finally, the most likely winner from the big European countries, Great Britain is third at 9.9%. Children of the Universe has been viewed 545,016 times on YouTube.

2) Semi-final 1: Tonight's semi-final will send 10 of 16 songs to Saturday's finals. Here are the live predictions.

Locks: Armenia, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Hungary are virtual locks to make it to the finals.

Likely: Russia, Netherlands, and Belgium are all very likely at over 75% to make it to the finals.

Bubbles (in): Montenegro is 66% and Estonia is 64% to make it to the finals, rounding out the top 10 most likely.

Bubbles (out): Moldova is 45% to squeeze into the finals.

Not Likely: Iceland and Albania are possible, but long shots at about 25% to make it into the finals.

Very Longshots: Latvia, San Marino, and Portugal are all very longshots at less than 20% to make it into the finals.