5:30 PM ET: We had another strong night tonight with our semi-final 2 predictions. All 5 of our "Very Likely" finalists breezed through the semi-finals. 2 of 3 of our "Likely" finalists won, with Israel not making it to the final. 1 of 2 "Bubbles (in)" made it with Poland in and Ireland out. 2 of 3 "Bubbles (out)" got to the finals with Lithuania missing the cut and Belarus and Slovenia triumphing. Finally, both of our "Not Likely" did not make it …
1) Likely winner: the likely winner looks dramatically different between the two semi-finals for two reasons. First, 10 competitors who previously had to pass through the semi-finals are now in the semi-finals … getting over that barrier increases their chances of victory. Second, fans got a close look at those 10 competitors on Tuesday and it changed some rankings.
Sweden has overtaken Armenia as the most likely winner at 25% to Armenia’s 18%. Clearly Armenia’s semi-final performance was not as strong as expected as it went into the semi-finals with 32% likelihood of victory. The surprise of the day was the Netherlands that pushed up to 14% with a strong semi-finals performance.
Expect one or two of the winners of tonight’s semi-finals to vault into competition, after they escape into the final round! More details below tonight's preview …
2) Semi-final 2: Tonight's semi-final will send 10 of 15 competitors to Saturday's finals. Here are the live predictions. This semi-final is a lot tighter than Tuesday’s semi-final with no lock and no definite misses.
Very Likely: Norway, Greece, Romania, Austria, and Malta are all over 80%. Unlike Tuesday’s semi-finals there are no locks this time!
Likely: Finland, Israel, and Switzerland are all about 75% to make it to the finals.
Bubbles (in): Poland and Ireland round out my top 10 with 67% and 62% likelihood respectively.
Bubbles (out): Belarus, Slovenia, and Lithuania are the likely competitors to pick up one or two spots in the finals at about 50% likely each.
Not Likely: Macedonia and Georgia are 22% and 14% each. Again, this is not likely, but I am not saying they are impossible.
3) Likely winner of Eurovision 2014 from before the first semi-final and now before the second semi-final: