The Golden Globes are Sunday, January 11 and, as usual, we have some bold, market-based, predictions on PredictWise. The methodology for the Golden Globes is the exact same as the Oscars, which has not been previously tested out-of-sample for the Golden Globes, but we are excited to see how they do. We have predictions for 10 categories and here are our pre-event predictions:
We have the drama Boyhood looking very strong in Best Director, Best Picture (drama), and Patricia Arquette as Best Supporting Actress. We have the comedy Birdman rivaling Boyhood with a favored position in Best Picture (comedy or musical), Michael Keaton as Best Actor (comedy or musical), and Best Screenplay. Eddie Remayne leads the Best Actor (drama) category from The Theory of Everything, Julianne Moore from Sill Alice as the Best Actress (drama), Emily Blunt from Into the Woods as Best Actress (comedy or musical), and J.K. Simmons from Whiplash as Best Supporting Actor. The closest categories are Best Actress (comedy or musical) with Amy Adams from Big Eyes in a close second, and Best Screenplay with The Brand Budapest Hotel and Boyhood both challenging.
We expect to get 8 out of 10 correct with an average probability for the leading nominee at 82%. Enjoy the show and follow the live predictions here: http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/GG2015.