Pollfish, a Greek-based mobile polling platform, has been releasing a series of fascinating polls over the last few weeks. Pollfish operates as a pop-up poll inside of third-party mobile applications. Prior the Sunday, July 5 referendum they polled 7,275 Greeks. And, in the last week, they have polled 2,400 Europeans. This poll is random, but not fully representative.
While 61% of Greek voters voted NO on the referendum, 75% of Pollfish respondents (who indicated a choice for either NO or YES) indicated they would vote NO in the week leading up the voting. This result stands in sharp contrast to the majority of polls that underestimate the support for NO. The discrepancy in favor of NO, is likely driven by an undercount of older respondents in this poll.
Understanding the poll is over-counting NO voters, it is still incredibly meaningful to learn more about the divide between NO and YES voters. 75% of NO voters and 88% of YES voters indicated they thought Greece would stay in the Euro. The NO voters, confident in victory, clearly did not think the vote meant the end of the Euro in Greece. The big divide between the two camps was on the government, with 81% of NO voters supporting the government and 84% of YES voters not supporting the government.
In the current poll, in the field from July 7 to July 10, 55% of Europeans want Greece to be part of the Euro, with 26% saying no, and 20% providing no answer. Again, ignoring the topline numbers for a second, it is extremely constructive to jump into the differences between the two camps. Those respondents that support Greece staying in the Euro have both positive view of Greece and of the Greek government. Those respondents that support Greece leaving the Euro also have a positive view of Greece, but an overwhelmingly negative view of its government.
There is a strong hint of wishful thinking (or possibly bandwagon) in the expectations of the respondents. Those that want Greece staying with the Euro think it would be good for the Eurozone for them to stay, and they are likely to stay; while those that want Greece out of the Euro have mixed feelings on the benefit of Greece leaving the Eurozone, but they think that it is likely they will. Those respondents that wish Greece to stay on the Euro think it will stay with 58%. And, they feel that the Eurozone will be impacted negatively with a departure by 62%, with just 11% saying it would be positive and 27% saying either no affect or no answer. Those respondents that wish Greece to leave the Euro think it leave with 77%. And, they feel that the Eurozone will be impacted negatively with a departure by 37%, with 28% saying it would be positive and 35% saying either no affect or no answer.
The latest market numbers are 77% that Greece will stay on the Euro through 2015.
Survey on Greeks: https://www.pollfish.com/dashboard/results/2784/-1362401898
Survey on Europeans: https://www.pollfish.com/dashboard/results/2848/281738220