When I predict the outcome of the Republican primary, I am predicting what the data tells me what will happen, not what I wish would happen. I applaud Paul’s strength of conviction, both when I agree and disagree with him. Paul’s main path to victory is winning Iowa, becoming the anyone-but-Romney candidate and then beating Romney. Accomplishing all three is an unlikely, but possible task and that is why the prediction markets have Paul at 7.4 percent to gain the nomination.

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