This table will update every 5 minutes all night …

[table table-id=1612]

[table table-id=1613]

11:23 PM ET: Markets now at 98% for Clinton to (barely) carry IA

11:11 PM ET: Trump is still favored in NH for GOP, but Rubio & Cruz both up a little. Not much movement in NH on the DEM side; Sanders 85% to win NH.

10:37 PM ET: New GOP Nomination: Rubio 55%, Trump 31%, Cruz 7%, Bush 5% … Huge Night for Marco Rubio

10:10 PM ET: Markets have called IA for Cruz and have Clinton up to 90% to win IA

9:58 PM ET: Market-based forecasts just moved to 96% for Cruz and 90% for Clinton

9:49 PM ET: Cruz and Clinton both at 85% in IA.

9:33 PM ET: Cruz up to 80% and Clinton staying firm at 85% in IA

9:22 PM ET: Tables are updating a little slowly right now, but will keep up with the live tweets/blogs of the latest market-based probabilities!

9:14 PM ET: Market have now officially flipped! 40% for Trump and 60% for Cruz to carry IA. Up to 85% for Clinton on the DEM side.

9:07 PM ET: Markets are moving aggressively towards Cruz. In a few minutes we may hit 60% for Trump and 40% for Cruz

8:45 PM ET: Trump up a few more pp to 77%; Clinton back up to 75%. Starting to see impact on probability of nomination with Trump up 2 pp since this afternoon.


8:25 PM ET: Rubio is 25% to finish 2nd. That means he is almost certain reach the level he needed to consider this a huge victory, a tight 3rd or even 2nd.

8:10 PM ET: On the strength of entrance polls, Trump is up a few pp (now 75%) and Clinton is a down a few pp (now 65%)

7:30 PM ET: Just 30 minutes from the Caucus doors closing the market have moved slightly towards Trump on the GOP side and have stayed steady on the DEM side.


11:30 AM ET: Here are snapshots from the morning, just to make it clear how things move!



10:15 AM ET: Bookmark this page to follow along live with PredictWise as the Iowa Caucus unfolds tonight.