Prior to the ruling, there was no meaningful correlation between the healthcare decision and the presidential election. There was no discernible impact on Obama’s reelection odds, for example, from the major shock in the likelihood of the Supreme Court ruling after the oral arguments. Now, we finally see that relationship: After the decision, Obama’s odds of reelection ticked up a few points. The political markets-which are considerably more precise than the judicial pools-clearly see this a political victory for the White House, albeit a slight one that could evaporate quickly.
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