Updating predictions … Here is the state of the March 15 election day as of March 13 at 5 PM ET …
Trump is favored in 4 of 5 on Tuesday, 3/15. A little more detail:
1) Florida: 80% for Trump, 12% for Rubio, and 7% Cruz. If anything this lead has solidified over the last few days.
2) Illinois: 73% for Trump, 23% for Cruz. Trump took a bit of tumble here (home to the most salient of the anti-Trump protests over the last few days), but rebounded pretty quickly.
3) Missouri: Trump is at 60% with Cruz at 39%. This lead has also increased in the last few days. Cruz actually had a brief lead late last week.
4) North Carolina: Trump >99%
5) Ohio: after briefly losing the lead, Kasich is 70% to take his home state. Trump is 30%.
Clinton is also favored in 4 of 5 on Tuesday, 3/15, but two of the races are super close:
6) Florida: Clinton is 91% and stable
7) Illinois: 53% for Clinton and 47% to Sanders. Does not get much closer than this. Clinton has lead the entire time, but it just keeps getting tighter
8) Missouri: 56% for Sanders and 44% for Clinton. This one just keeps bouncing back and forth.
9) North Carolina: 86% for Clinton.
10) Ohio: 65% for Clinton