Missouri Republican senate candidate Todd Akin started the day with a 65 percent likelihood of unseating the incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill. Earlier today footage of Mr. Akin’s appearance on The Jako Report became public. In response to a question about legalized abortion for rape victims, Mr. Akins stated that, “From what I understand from doctors, that is really rare. If it is a legitimate rape, the female body has a ways to try to shut that whole thing down.”
Anticipating the effect of these comments on the senate race between now and Election Day, PredictWise’s real-time predictions have moved to 70 percent likelihood for Senator McCaskill. We expect this prediction, which includes polls, prediction markets, and fundamental data, to move even further in the next few days when the first polls are conducted that include these comments and they likely catch up with the prediction markets.