At 6:50 AM ET on March 25, here are all of today’s games. I have ordered them by the likelihood of the lower seed winning. The number 1 seeds are heavily favored to win their games. Both #1 Virginia and #1 UNC are about 70%. #11 Gonzaga is a pretty heavy favorite over #10 Syracuse … I guess that is an “upset” by seed. More interesting is that #7 Wisconsin and #6 Notre Dame are basically 50%, with Notre Dame having the slightest (statistically insignificant) lead at this point.
At 6:50 AM ET on March 23, here is every team’s probability of winning the tournament. UNC (which has one more round to win than Kansas and Villanova) is favored with 20%. Kansas holding strong at 19% and Virginia at 13%. Villanova and Oklahoma have joined double digits with their convincing wins last night.