At 10:30 AM ET on March 18, here are all of today’s games. I have ordered them by the likelihood of the lower seed winning. A lot better seeding today with only #10 VCU at 64% expected to upset (along with #9 Cincinnati, but since all 4 #9 were favored to win their games, not sure if I can consider this an upset!). Likely upsets to watch include #10 Pittsburgh over Wisconsin and #Syracuse over Dayton.
At 10:30 AM ET on March 18, here is every team with 2% probability of winning the tournament or more. Kansas leads with 13%, followed closely by UNC at 12%, Michigan State at 11%, and Virginia at 11%, rounding out the four teams in double digits. These numbers remain relatively unchanged after Day 1.