There are a few things you need to know about Round 3, Day 1:
1) The "big call" yesterday was Tennessee (11) over UMass (6) at 62% and Tennessee crushed UMass 86 to 67. The other double digit upset we said had a high probability was Stanford (10) at 40% to beat New Mexico (7) and they did at 58 to 53.
2) Obviously, Duke (3) was heavily favored to beat Mercer (14), but while we did not know which upset was going to happen, we knew upsets would happen! So far we have had 13 games where the favored team was 80% or greater (average 94%) and one upset in that group is about in expectation.
3) Actually, we are perfectly calibrated through 36 games, with average probability of the favored team at 75% we have had 75% games, exactly, where the favorite won. You can see the full list of static pre-game predictions here.
4) Upsets predicted for today: no actual upsets for day in that the higher seed is more than likely to win every game, but is close. The average likelihood of victory for the favored team is just 67%; we expect the favorite to win in just 5-6 of the 8 games.
5) Most likely upsets are the games where the higher seed is less than 60% to win: that includes the largest seed differential with San Diego St. (4) at just 59% to beat North Dakota St. (12). We also have Villanova (2) at just 60.5% to beat Connecticut (7).
7) Full list of real-time updating predictions. These are updating about every 2-3 minutes. I apologize in advance for any real-time quirks!
Now … go have a productive day at work!