There are a few things you need to know about Round 3, Day 2:

1) Again, we had a well calibrated day with two upsets out of eight games. We had one our two most likely as Villanova (2) losing to Connecticut (7) and we had Dayton (11) at 27% to beat Syracuse (3) who came limping into the tournament.

2) Upsets predicted for today: North Carolina (6) is a virtual toss-up against Iowa State (3) at 48% to 52% respectively to win. Similarly, Creighton (3) is just 59% against Baylor (6). The 3-6 matchups are the tightest in seeds and tightest expected outcomes.

3) The most likely upset outside of the 3-6 matchups is Wichita State (1) falling to Kentucky. We have Kentucky at 35% to knock out the undefeated Shockers. Interestingly, the next closest game is Virginia (1) at just 71% to advance to the Final Four. Of course, we are not that concerned about these games in the long run, because we both Virginia and Wichita State falling to very strong 4th seeds (Michigan State and Louisville respectively) in the Sweet Sixteen … if they make it!

4) Full list of static, pre-game predictions.

5) Full list of real-time updating predictions. These are updating about every 2-3 minutes. I apologize in advance for any real-time quirks!