Newt Gingrich’s likelihood of winning the Republican nomination plummeted in the prediction markets from nearly 40 percent midday on Tuesday to about 20 percent midday on Thursday, holding at 19.6 percent as of this writing. Gingrich still has a large lead in Real Clear Politics’ aggregated trend of national Republican polls with 33.2 percentage points to 22.7 percentage points for Mitt Romney and 10.0 percentage points for Ron Paul. Gingrich’s abrupt drop in the prediction markets is all about concerns over his strength in Iowa.

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