We recently did some polling for NowThis on Judge Kavanaugh. The poll was conducted on Friday, September 21, so it misses some recent allegations, but is still extremely relevant. Here is the full data.
Let us start with the toplines. Young people state they are less likely to vote than older people: they are actually way less likely to vote. But, while the country is largely mixed on whether or not Judge Kavanaugh should become a Justice of the Supreme Court: young people are way more opposed to that. But, young people are also way more likely to not have an opinion.
Do you plan on voting in the 2018 elections? For what it is worth (i.e., it is debatable how predictive this question really is) we see a slight uptick from September 11, with 66 percent saying “Definitely” and 23 percent saying “Likely”. Young voters are still the lowest in this category with Democratic and Republican voters very similar.
Do you agree or disagree that the Senate should confirm Trump’s nominee Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court? What we saw is a massive increase in polarization and strength of position. Democratic voters moved from 49 percent “Disagree strongly” to 57 percent. While Republicans moved from 62 percent “Agree strongly” to 69 percent. Independents continue to have a plurality “don’t know”. Support for Kavanaugh increases with age, as millennials are strongly opposed and people 45 and older support Kavanaugh.
MeToo and Sexual Assault Case around Judge Kavanaugh. Everyone thinks the FBI should investigate the allegations against Judge Kavanaugh. But, there are certainty concerns in some populations that the pendulum has swung too far in favor of rights and feelings of alleged victims, relative to alleged assailants, in sexual assault cases.
Do you agree or disagree that if proven, people should be held accountable for sexual assaults they committed over 30 years ago? 67 percent agree, but 25 percent disagree. Younger people agree with greater strength and this fades with age. 40 percent of Republicans disagree with statement!
In regard to alleged sexual assaults: how well does society weigh the rights of alleged offenders with alleged victims today? And Thinking back a few years, in regard to alleged sexual assaults: how well did society weigh the rights of alleged offenders with alleged victims? This is tight and fascinating. For now: While a plurality of most people groups believe there is a good mix, it is 25 percent “too deferential to offender”, 29 percent “good mix of deference”, 23 percent “too deferential to victims” and 23 “don’t know”. It may be the closed thing we have ever polled. Younger folks are more inclined to believe that society is too deferential to offenders with 28 and 29 percent, versus 24 percent in the older age brackets.
All age groups think society used to be easy on offenders.
Do you believe the FBI should investigate the sexual assault allegation against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh before the Senate votes on his confirmation? Younger folks think we should at about 77 to 79 percent, while older folks are not so sure at 62 to 57 percent.
Do you believe Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted Christine Blasey Ford in 1982, as she has alleged? Most people don’t know, which makes sense. But, Younger folks are way more included to believe it (either strongly or weakly) at nearly 50 percent. With just 36 percent of older folks. Huge differential.
Impact of Justice Kavanaugh: people are concerned about the impact of the new Supreme Court, but not nearly enough. Justice Kavanaugh will usher in a Court that will strike at right’s of women, workers, voters, and minorities. Younger folks are way more attune to this, but still not enough.
Do you believe that within the next few years, the Supreme Court will allow states to make abortion illegal under any circumstance? Younger folks are much more included to believe this at 48 and 46 percent than holder folks at 40 percent. This is still a low number considering it is the stated goal of the people that nominated Judge Kavanaugh.
Do you believe that within the next few years the Supreme Court will make it too hard for eligible citizens, especially youth and minorities, to vote? Again younger folks are concerned at higher rates than older folks, despite current Court making it a salient priority in striking down the Voting Rights Act.
When it comes to the balance between corporate rights and the rights of workers, do you believe the Supreme Court in the next few years will be: this is great, massive, and consistent numbers that Supreme Court favors corporations.
Republican operative Brett Kavanaugh Republicans have blocked the release of Kavanaugh’s work for George Bush, whose policies are still really unpopular (even if he is not).
Do you agree or disagree that the US should be able to use torture to get information from our enemies? John Yoo, who wrote the Torture Memos, has been a big supporter of his former legal colleague. We have no idea if Kavanaugh had anything to do with memos, but it would be huge if he did. Torture is still really divisive, but younger folks are much more likely to disagree with it, while it garners majority support from older folks.
Do you agree or disagree that campaigns or the government should be able to use material stolen from their political opposition? We do know that Kavanaugh used stolen documents and lied to the senate about that. There is strong opposition to the use of these types of documents with stronger condemnation coming from older folks!
How will history judge the presidency of George W. Bush? It is like no one can remember the mid-Aughts or they are just making everything relative. While younger folks do judge him more harshly, the plurality of each age group thinks of Bush as average, despite him leaving the US in a massive recession and two war we are still, sort of, fighting. History will not be as kind to the current president, according to the polling.