52 percent to 43 percent Americans support the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare). When we did the same poll three months ago, it was 44 percent support and 49 percent opposition. We saw no substantial change to the support for the underlying components of Obamacare: coverage for pre-existing conditions, coverage for kids up to 26 years old, coverage for birth control, Medicaid for up to 1.4 poverty line, a marketplace, and the individual mandate (the only one people do not love). People did not change their minds in the last few months about things that make up Obamacare; instead, they finally learned what was in Obamacare.
We polled on six major components of Obamcare and they stayed relatively stable from November 28, 2016 to February 27, 2017. In none of these six questions was there higher support in February versus November. Actually, there was a median drop of 2 percentage points in support. Here are the topics: How do you feel about banning health insurance companies from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions? How do you feel about requiring health insurance companies to let parents keep children on their plan until age 26? How do you feel about extending Medicaid to families making up to 1.4 times the federal poverty line? How do you feel about requiring health insurance companies to cover birth control? How do you feel about government created marketplaces where people can compare and shop for health insurance? How do you feel about the government penalizing people for not having health insurance?
At the same time, support for Obamacare increased from 44 percent to 52, going from the minority to the majority. This is not driven by increased support for the components of Obamacare, but the realization of many that Obamacare includes all of these things they like and that they may lose it soon.
The PredictWise and Pollfish survey received responses from 1,200 people on Feb. 27 through online and in-app polling methods. We do not report margin of error because we do not believe it can be accurately estimated.
Tobias Konitzer is a PhD candidate in communication at Stanford University. Find him on Twitter @KonitzerTobias.
Sam Corbett-Davies is a PhD candidate at Stanford University in computer science. Find him on Twitter @scorbettdavies.
David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. Find him on Twitter @DavMicRot.