Quick Wisconsin Voting Guide: If you like Trump, vote Trump. Otherwise vote Cruz unless you live in Second Congressional District (Madison area) where you should vote for Kasich.
I used to live in the northern suburbs of Chicago, not all that far from the Wisconsin border. We’d eat brats watching Brewers games, enjoy cream puffs at the Wisconsin State Fair, and visit colleagues at the University of Wisconsin. And now the Badger State may (or may not) move the Republican race in a different direction, given Trump’s significant drop in the past week.
Let’s start with the Democrats who, as usual, use a proportional primary, 19 delegates statewide and 57 spread through the congressional districts. Sanders will likely win Wisconsin but it won’t much help him win the nomination. Wisconsin has open primaries so you’ll have more influence if you cross over and vote Republican.
The Republican race boils down to whether Trump can exceed or get close to a majority of delegates. The best bet for everyone else is a brokered convention. The Republican allocation gives 18 delegates all to the statewide winner, very likely Cruz. The real action happens in the eight separate races in the eight congressional districts which allocate three delegates each to the candidate winning each district. We don’t have prediction markets for each district but a Marquette Law School Poll from Wednesday (right before Trump’s drop) does give support per region with Cruz having a lead in all regions except the “Madison Media Market” which has Kasich in a small lead over Trump. Madison and its suburbs dominate Wisconsin’s second congressional district. If these numbers hold up, Cruz should win 39 of Wisconsin’s republican delegates with Kasich picking up the remaining three in the second.
If you vote in Wisconsin and support Trump, vote Trump. If you would prefer a brokered convention, the best bet is Cruz except for those in the second district who should vote for Kasich.
Lance Fortnow is a professor and chair at the School of Computer Science at the Georgia Tech College of Computing