12:10 AM ET: 17-7 … eh … The average probability for the favorite was 75% (exactly) … 1 less win than expected. Not as sexy (or dramatic) as the 20 and 21 in the past 2 years respectively, but stoked to see a well-calibrated outcome!


11:28 PM ET: 14-6 … ok, not breaking any records tonight, but what can I do! Hoping for 18!

11:10 PM ET: 13-5 … rough night, but you know what? Still on pace to hit properly calibrated 18-6.

10:45 PM ET: 12-4 … ouch! Big slide, but hoping to run the table!

9:57 PM ET: 10-1 … just finished the technical categories!


9:40 PM ET: 1/3 of the way through and we are 8-0 so far!

9:30 PM ET: My market-based predictions are 6-0 so far. And how about Mad Max with 3 Oscars already!

8:30 PM ET: Mad Max is very likely to take home the most Oscars tonight! Of course, mostly in the technical categories.

7:20 PM ET: Spotlight started in lead then The Big Short lead for a week or so then The Revenant pulled ahead of Oscars Best Picture!PredictWise20160228z

11:00 AM ET: Here is the forecast as of 10:30 AM ET on Sunday, February 28, 2016. I will blog from this page all Oscars!