I always emphasis four traits to any good indictor or prediction: accurate, relevant, timely, and scalable. Accurate means a small error and well calibrated. Relevant means that the values the right value for the stakeholders. Timely means that the values starts early and update regularly. Scalable means that the methods and platforms allow many different values to be generated with minimal marginal cost.
The Oscar predictions at PredictWise are all four. First, we offer the probability of victory for all 24 categories. While some people offer binary outcomes and some people offer 6 or 8 or 9 categories, we do not settle for anything short of the right question for the right outcomes. Second, we are confident that our predictions are well calibrated in that if we say 10 things are 90% to happen, 9 of them will happen. Right now we have about 85% likelihood on the leader for all 24 categories. That means we hope that between 20 and 21 are pointing towards the winner. Third, our predictions started just after the nominations and have moved with the results of the awards season or other outside events. Fourth, our scalability is what allows us to jump into the Oscars as easily as we will jump into March Madness and the World Cup this summer.
So, if you are scoring at home, here are our predictions as of late on February 28, 2014. The predictions will change during the lead-up to the awards show and the show itself. I will be live blogging during the Oscars on this site and tweeting updates. Live values are here, here, and here: