OK – make that 17 for 24 … just as predicted!

18 for 24. Not bad. Had me worried, but data worked out. Off to bed!


One left! Now 17 of 23. Expected 17 with initial probabilities pretty low this year, but hoping to round up to 18. Would be a great comeback for the markets tonight …

Wow, rough start. Normally, market dominates the technical categories, but this year it was a blood-bath (just 3 of 8!). But, fortunately, things came together with the other categories and brought PredictWise to a respectable 16 of 22 with just 2 left.


Pre-Oscar predictions. These are historically about 20 of 24, but lower than normal probabilities on top candidate this year. Expecting 17, with average leading choice just 70 percent likely.