11:49 PM ET: 20 of 24! Oscars are really good demonstration of when prediction markets work: idiosyncratic data and dispersed information. For the record, counting Picture as a loss, but The Shape of Water moved ahead mid-Oscars!
11:34 PM ET: 20 of 23 heading into final award, Best Picture. The Shape of Water is now favored about about 50% with Three Billboards down to 35%. Basically reversed from what we had this morning.
11:06 PM ET: 17 of 20 heading into the big four! Markets have moved heavily towards The Shape of Water, now basically reversed with Three Billboards.
11:04 PM ET: Again, heading into Original Song, This is Me slightly favored over Remember Me. But, markets should have stayed with the early favorite!
10:52 PM ET: 15 of 18. Clean sweep of the technical categories (8 for 8!).
9:58 PM ET: 14 of 17. Lost a few on the shorts! For what it is worth, This is Me is now favored for Original Song.
9:58 PM ET: 12 of 13. Oscars are really good demonstration of when prediction markets work: idiosyncratic data and dispersed information.
9:42 PM ET: 10 for 11
9:31 PM ET: 8 for 9
8:33 PM ET: 5 for 6
8:33 PM ET: 3 for 3
8:25 PM ET: 1 for 1
9:30 AM ET: Reminder that live prices can be found here. They will update every few minutes as the Oscars unfold.
9:25 AM ET: Welcome to PredictWise’s coverage of the Oscars 2018. Our model is very simple: we are just reporting to you the probabilities derived completely from publicly available prediction markets. We tried to create more complex models, but they were not as accurate. Historically, prediction markets are binary “correct” for 19 of 24 categories. Right now the average probability for the leader is about 75 percent, which means we expect to get 18 of 24 “correct” this year, but will be very happy with 24 of 24 anyway! Here are the probabilities as of 8:30 AM ET on Oscar Day.