Oscars 2018

11:49 PM ET: 20 of 24! Oscars are really good demonstration of when prediction markets work: idiosyncratic data and dispersed information. For the record, counting Picture as a loss, but The Shape of Water moved ahead mid-Oscars! 11:34 PM ET: 20 of 23 heading into final award, Best Picture. The Shape of Water is now Read more

Bashful Antisemites

I will block two types of tweeters, people who send: (1) death threats and (2) Irrelevant, ad hominem, antisemitic attacks. I still believe that Twitter can be used to talk with people with different view. As people as ask me questions about things I have written, I try to reply and engage. Hopefully, blocking a few Read more

Guns Control Messaging

We have all learned a few things about guns and gun policy over the last 11 days since the Stoneman Douglas High School Shooting. We put a poll into the field on Friday to help us think about what public sentiment and knowledge was, and how that should help shape the messaging around the policy debate. Read more

Republicans Hate the Constitution

Here is the full text of the Constitution. You should read it, it is not that long. In this post I am going to talk about the 27 Amendments to the Constitution in the context of today's politics. This post is part of 1 of 2 (I will focus on the main text in post Read more

Gun control is very popular

We last ran our monthly questions on gun control/right on January 11, 2018: PredictWiseGuns. The results are stark: 1) The vast majority of Americans support sensible gun control. This position mimics the Democratic elected leaders. 2) There is almost no difference between the parties. Which is in sharp contrast to the elected leaders. As the Republicans Read more

Issue Variables

By 2016 the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  had been omnipresent in the endless discourse of American campaigns. Then, during the 2016 campaign, a small data analytics shop with the name of Cambridge Analytica took it a step further: As first reported by the Swiss magazine Das Read more

Psychometric Variables

By 2016 the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  had been omnipresent in the endless discourse of American campaigns. Then, during the 2016 campaign, a small data analytics shop with the name of Cambridge Analytica took it a step further: As first reported by the Swiss magazine Das Read more

Random: Article on Books

Here is an interview I gave on reading: http://www.thereadinglists.com/david-rothschild-reading-list/. I want to highlight two questions: For someone starting out in your career, which three books would you make required reading and why? Barbarians at the Gate by Bryan Burrough and John Helyar, The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis, and Let My People Surf by Yvon Read more

Messaging the Economy

Forgetting about whatever the stock market is doing today (please look at long-term trends), the economy has been doing pretty well over the last few years. Not amazing, but pretty well (Remember: The stock market is not the economy).  This was tough for Team Obama to message: probably because they sucked at messaging (see: ObamaCare). Read more