SpecialPA18_ElectionNight

9:32 PM ET: NYT dial is down! But, markets are still working. Democrat holding steady at 75% to win: [chart table-id=1885] [table table-id=1885] 8:03 PM ET: Polls are closed and Democrat is 75% to win. 7:02 PM ET: NYT dial is at the ready: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html 5:35 PM ET: Our polling had the Democrat, Conor Lamb, Read more

SpecialPA18

In the week before the vote (March 5-11, 2018) we ran an under-powered survey in Pennsylvania's 18th district (using Pollfish's polling mobile-app-based audience and our standard analytics). Since we were just shy of 150 responses, we cannot put much stock in the headline number: We have Democrat Conor Lamb up by 1 percentage point over Read more

PredictWise Relaunch

Since the 2016 election, we at PredictWise have worked on a serious relaunch of PredictWise 2.0, also known as the PredictWise Public Opinion Engine – in stealth, reflecting the new political reality we face today. Here is the short of it: Our engine turns state-of-the-art behavioral data + polling + analytics into uniquely fast, accurate, Read more

Messaging Healthcare

The Republicans control all three branches of the US government and the rate of Americans uninsured for healthcare is going up, after years of decline under President Obama. The Democrats appear somewhat shy about backing meaningful healthcare reform if/when they get back into power: I think they should be bold. It will help them get Read more

Oscars 2018

11:49 PM ET: 20 of 24! Oscars are really good demonstration of when prediction markets work: idiosyncratic data and dispersed information. For the record, counting Picture as a loss, but The Shape of Water moved ahead mid-Oscars! 11:34 PM ET: 20 of 23 heading into final award, Best Picture. The Shape of Water is now Read more

Bashful Antisemites

I will block two types of tweeters, people who send: (1) death threats and (2) Irrelevant, ad hominem, antisemitic attacks. I still believe that Twitter can be used to talk with people with different view. As people as ask me questions about things I have written, I try to reply and engage. Hopefully, blocking a few Read more

Guns Control Messaging

We have all learned a few things about guns and gun policy over the last 11 days since the Stoneman Douglas High School Shooting. We put a poll into the field on Friday to help us think about what public sentiment and knowledge was, and how that should help shape the messaging around the policy debate. Read more

Republicans Hate the Constitution

Here is the full text of the Constitution. You should read it, it is not that long. In this post I am going to talk about the 27 Amendments to the Constitution in the context of today's politics. This post is part of 1 of 2 (I will focus on the main text in post Read more

Gun control is very popular

We last ran our monthly questions on gun control/right on January 11, 2018: PredictWiseGuns. The results are stark: 1) The vast majority of Americans support sensible gun control. This position mimics the Democratic elected leaders. 2) There is almost no difference between the parties. Which is in sharp contrast to the elected leaders. As the Republicans Read more

Issue Variables

By 2016 the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  had been omnipresent in the endless discourse of American campaigns. Then, during the 2016 campaign, a small data analytics shop with the name of Cambridge Analytica took it a step further: As first reported by the Swiss magazine Das Read more