Issue Variables

By 2016 the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  had been omnipresent in the endless discourse of American campaigns. Then, during the 2016 campaign, a small data analytics shop with the name of Cambridge Analytica took it a step further: As first reported by the Swiss magazine Das Read more

Psychometric Variables

By 2016 the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  had been omnipresent in the endless discourse of American campaigns. Then, during the 2016 campaign, a small data analytics shop with the name of Cambridge Analytica took it a step further: As first reported by the Swiss magazine Das Read more

Random: Article on Books

Here is an interview I gave on reading: http://www.thereadinglists.com/david-rothschild-reading-list/. I want to highlight two questions: For someone starting out in your career, which three books would you make required reading and why? Barbarians at the Gate by Bryan Burrough and John Helyar, The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis, and Let My People Surf by Yvon Read more

Messaging the Economy

Forgetting about whatever the stock market is doing today (please look at long-term trends), the economy has been doing pretty well over the last few years. Not amazing, but pretty well (Remember: The stock market is not the economy).  This was tough for Team Obama to message: probably because they sucked at messaging (see: ObamaCare). Read more

Americans want US to address climate change

On Monday, January 29 we ran a poll on climate change.  The poll was run on 1,200 random respondents from Pollfish's app-based audience. Methods: blog and academic paper. Here are a few key findings. Americans believe that climate change is something that is happening and that it is caused by humans. This generally conforms with many Read more

Party switching – the Case for Racial Resentment

A lot has been written about the relationship of racial resentment and support for President Trump. As Michael Tesler has noted in this blog, views on race have mattered more in electing Trump than Obama, perhaps because they have funneled a feeling of white vulnerability. If, as The Nation writes, the phenomenon Trump has “accelerated Read more

When do moderate Republicans flip? – Lessons Big Data can Teach Us

In the 2016 presidential campaign, Big Data had almost become an antiquated term. At least since Sasha Issenberg’s romanticized account of Obama’s win in the 2008 election fueled by war rooms stacked with high-powered machines, the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  has been omnipresent Read more

New Jersey Polling – Final

Back in July we did some early polling of the New Jersey election. We showed that our polling matched the Quinnipiac polling very tightly, where we overlapped. Again, our approval polling (Booker +31 net approval, Christie -32, and Trump -33) is very much in-line with the traditional polling, our horse-race polling is a little more Read more

Market Trump Finishes Term 20170807

There are robust markets on both PredictIt and Betfair on whether President Trump will be President of the United States at the end of 2017, 2018, 2019, and when his term expires on January 20, 2021 at 11:59 AM ET. I am tracking them on this page. These market as agnostic to the reasons Trump may Read more