A few thoughts on FiveThirtyEight: 1) Ignoring Polls-Plus: the link on the front-page goes to polls-only, so I am going to cite it as the main forecast. The polls-plus model did worse than the polls-only model in the primary, so I guess they have

I general write about prediction markets or, aggregation of polls and fundamental data, but since we have been running some experimental mobile-based polling and it is extremely timely, I wanted to share the results. The Pollfish survey, a weekly survey of 1,000 American

During the Democratic National Convention, several speakers have been interrupted by shouts opposing the Trans Pacific Partnership, a controversial free trade agreement. That supports the fact that trade has gotten more attention than usual during this year’s campaigns … Please read the article

11:35 PM: Media seems to think it is controversial, but overwhelming support for increased taxes on income over $250,000 pollingreport.com/budget.htm #DNC 11:31 PM: Markets trending upwards for Clinton. Current value 69% approaching pre-#RNC value. Will see it

10:49 PM ET: Hillary Clinton 57% favorable at end of 2012. Was positive favorable until starting running again in 2015 @pollster pic.twitter.com/pyaa1hzCIi 10:42 PM ET: Bill Clinton “she voted for and against trade deals,” – managed to

11:23 PM ET: biggest cheer of the night on appointing conservative justices #RNCinCLE 11:15 PM ET: Crowd is not really sure how to handle this linty of details on trade deals. 11:09 PM ET: So far plans include stopping immigration from

10:35 PM ET: Trump left and the lights are up; but, Gingrich is just all over the place in this speech … really hard for crowd to get in it 10:12 PM ET: Countries are not businesses or households. Countries print money,

I will be talking at a program at Penn designed to coincide with DNC (WCAI_July2016_Event_Flyer_7). Specifically, I will talk with Eric Bradlow between 9:30-11 AM on Wednesday, July 27.

Are prediction markets too stable, because people trust them too much and assume new information already baked in? I explore this in a post on Slate with Andrew Gelman.

The state-by-state breakdown of the presidential election in 2016 varies a lot from the 2012 election; in 2012 Republican Mitt Romney needed to sweep Florida (FL), Ohio (OH), and Virginia (VA) to win the election, in 2016 Republican Donald Trump needs to win 3

This article is also on Huffington Post Throughout the campaign, since January, we have been and will be polling Americans on their policy preferences. We want to know: Which candidate’s platform is closest to the ideology of the American voters, Hillary Clinton or

Post is reproduced from Huffington Post … New polling after the British referendum shows that it’s not the leave voters who regret their choice – it’s those who stayed home. Despite media declarations of widespread regret from leave voters, only 5% would vote

When considering the myriad of predictions before Brexit, when it comes to polling, financial markets, and prediction markets, there are certainly some bright spots and some concern: First, polling did pretty well, depending on what polls you cherry picked. The final Pollster numbers were

Full article: Four keys for predicting whether Britain will leave the European Union

Full version on Huffington Post … The latest YouGov polling has the Brexit vote a dead heat: 44% of British voters want the UK to leave the EU, 42% want the UK to stay in the EU, and 9% don’t know how

The predictions on PredictWise (especially the politics page) are not abstract. Elections have real-world consequences. The election on Thursday, June 23 to decide if the United Kingdom of great Britain and Northern Ireland stays in the European Union is a great example. If the

There is an old saying, about something that is solid and reliable: it is “Sound as Pound.” But, recently the British Pound has not been so sound! Over the last week, as Brexit, or British Exit from the European Union, has become

According to markets, Brexit has a 38% of occurring, in that there is a 38% of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU), and 62% of staying in the EU. At the exact same time the HuffingtonPost Pollster trend is 45.6%

Last week I started working with MSN on their new polling interface. Along with many others, including some of my regular collaborators, I am very excited by the challenge of helping to take data from the standard internet poll (fully opt-in and open to

There is no “Trump Bump” in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats. Washington Post, June 7, 2016

Huffington Post’s Pollster counts about 100 head-to-head polls for Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump since the start of 2016. Their model, which aggregates these polls with a local trend, estimates a consistent Clinton lead that started at 44.9 to 42.3 on

The raw data table on PredictWise shows a very clear gap opening up between Betfair and PredictIt for the winning party of the 2016 presidential election. Translating the Betfair data into dollar contracts, one can sell the Democratic nominee to be president for $0.

Someone forwarded me this article by Ray Hennessy: The Problem With Polling, Surveys and Opinion Is That People Fib. The piece so (1) riddled with factual errors (2) over-the-top “business lessons” I thought it was a joke. My friend convinced me that

As we leave the realm of contested primary elections, let me take a quick look at how market-based predictions did in 2016. First, market-based predictions had full coverage, this is in sharp contrast to the poll-based forecasts that covered about 50-55 of the 80

PredictWise officially switched the headline chart for the first time in over a year from the Republican nomination to the winner of the general election for president. A few thoughts on this shift in the election: (1) The Republican nomination is now over; Donald