When do moderate Republicans flip? – Lessons Big Data can Teach Us

In the 2016 presidential campaign, Big Data had almost become an antiquated term. At least since Sasha Issenberg’s romanticized account of Obama’s win in the 2008 election fueled by war rooms stacked with high-powered machines, the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  has been omnipresent Read more

New Jersey Polling – Final

Back in July we did some early polling of the New Jersey election. We showed that our polling matched the Quinnipiac polling very tightly, where we overlapped. Again, our approval polling (Booker +31 net approval, Christie -32, and Trump -33) is very much in-line with the traditional polling, our horse-race polling is a little more Read more

Market Trump Finishes Term 20170807

There are robust markets on both PredictIt and Betfair on whether President Trump will be President of the United States at the end of 2017, 2018, 2019, and when his term expires on January 20, 2021 at 11:59 AM ET. I am tracking them on this page. These market as agnostic to the reasons Trump may Read more

Current: Paris, Jobs, Healthcare, and Popular Vote

Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on July 20, 2017. The full dataset can be found here. The Paris Accord itself is not that well know and does not really resonate; but, voters really want the US to remain engaged. Democrats are opposed to leaving the Paris Accord and Republicans support it, but many do not know. That being said, Read more

Finance Polling

There is a lot of discussion on the value of "big data" in creating actionable market intelligence. Hedge funds buy up all sorts of big behavioral data sets to gauge the growth of consumer-facing companies. This is not new, decades ago they counted cars in parking lots, moved onto satellite images, then onto caches of digital footprints Read more

New Jersey Polling

Quinnipiac does high-end random-digit dialing polling in New Jersey, which they make publicly available here. We thought New Jersey, with its 2017 election, would be an interesting place to track with our MRP+ methodology. We can do polling there at roughly 1/10 the cost and 1/3 the time of standard polling. Further, our methods, both Read more

Democrats: not just against GOP/TrumpCare for Buy-in to Medicaid

On March 23, 2010 President Barack Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act into law. The law was mostly enacted by 2013; from 2013 to 2017 the rate of uninsured Americans fell from about 17 percent to 10 percent. The law also mandated a reasonably high level of coverage for any insurance plan. There Read more

Faith in US System

Faith in the US system is low. Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on June 15, 2017. 1) There is widespread belief in vote fraud (not real) and generally increasing belief in voter suppression (real). Only 50 percent of Americans think the 2020 election will be "free and fair". This is unchanged from March. 2) Read more

Polling UK: Labour Surge

Labour surged 9 pp on Conservatives from May 15 to June 2, and gave back 4 pp from June 2 to June 6. The UK votes in districts, not by proportion, so we cannot make a prediction of the final control of parliament, but Labour has certainly closed a large popular vote gap (we have them Read more

Polling MSN in 2017

I am very excited to continue to help analyze polling data for MSN on important topics of the day. MSN's opt-in polling is very cost-effective and fast to run, and this column helps explain how it is also accurate. MSN runs polls on both its front-page (and some back-pages) and that data is collected by Read more